Rosenthal Blog

Stalking the Bear: Trouble Brewing Behind Facade of Bull Rally

admin — Thu, 16 Feb 2012 18:45:09 +0000

Part 1 of a Series A Central Bank induced rally has gripped the stock market and driven the averages up in an almost straight line since mid December. The announcement of joint CB intervention on November 30th set the stage for this rather formidable rally. I’m loath to get in the way of this currency creation [...]

Top Shelf Tweets:Gasoline Consumption Indicator,CME Margin Reductions,Greece,Bove on Foreclosure,

admin — Mon, 13 Feb 2012 15:47:47 +0000

BretRosenthalFeb 10, 11:39am via HootSuite Why Is Gasoline Consumption Tanking?ow.ly/8ZPRP BretRosenthalFeb 10, 11:38am via HootSuite “If you look at data from 1983 to 2011, you will note that delivery declines align with recessions.” BretRosenthalFeb 10, 11:15am via HootSuite “Gasoline data is interesting it is un-manipulated it is not “seasonally adjusted” or modified like so much other government data.” BretRosenthalFeb 10, 11:13am [...]

The Policy of Truth: Employment Facts vs. Fiction, Increasing Taxes Decreases Revenue (A Case Study)

admin — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 21:38:50 +0000

Employment Facts vs. Fiction Last Friday the government released the most recent ream of employment data. Much to the excitement of the Fin. TV set the numbers were “better than expected.” Volumes have been written on the government’s ability and desire to manipulate this type of data. We are in an election year and only [...]

Top Shelf Tweets:Stock Market & Obama,TrimTabs Reality Check,Kyle Bass & Bill Gross Weigh In,

admin — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 18:10:32 +0000

BretRosenthal9:39am via HootSuite Just how “stable” would the global economy be absent $2 trillion in central bank monetizations in the past 16 months bit.ly/xx9C2b IBDinvestorsFeb 04, 9:35am via HootSuite Stock Market Predicts Defeat For President Obama ow.ly/1h9qfJ BretRosenthalFeb 03, 2:29pm via HootSuite TrimTabs: “Actual jobs outstanding, not seasonally adjusted, are down 2.9 million over the past two months” GoldCoreFeb 03, 12:33pm via Tweet [...]

Guest Post: MoneyWeek ‘The secret driver behind gold’s rampant bull market’

admin — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 16:11:54 +0000

What’s been the main driver of the gold bull market? Low interest rates? Fear of inflation? Currency wars? Each of the above has certainly played a role in gold’s decade-long winning streak. But, according to a fascinating new piece of research from US fund manager GMO, the biggest reason for gold’s rise is something that most investors still don’t [...]

Guest Post IBD: Stock Market Predicts Defeat For President Obama

admin — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 15:55:13 +0000

By PAUL WHITFIELD, INVESTOR’S BUSINESS DAILY Posted 02/04/2012 08:05 AM ET View Enlarged Image It’s happened 13 times since 1936. Call it the IBD January Incumbent Barometer. An incumbent president faces a challenger … and 13 out of 13 times the stock market picks the winner in January. Say again? Here’s how it works: When the stock market scores a big gain in January [...]

Top Shelf Tweets:Weak Economic Numbers, Dovish Ben Bernanke, Massive Chinese Gold Buying,The End of the Petrodollar,US Bank Credit Curves Improve

admin — Tue, 31 Jan 2012 15:43:13 +0000

BretRosenthal10:19am via HootSuite RT @zerohedge: Yup: the revisions are here: New Orders down from 57.6 to 54.8, Employment from 55.1 to 54.8. NFP to be revised lower next BretRosenthal10:02am via HootSuite January Consumer Confidence 61.1 vs 67.0Briefing.com consensus; December 64.8 Econ #s weak explains Ben B. Dove comments last week. BretRosenthal9:53am via HootSuite PMI figures released to a limited group 3 [...]

Guest Post: The Demise of the Petrodollar by Casey Daily Dispatch

admin — Thu, 26 Jan 2012 16:48:10 +0000

Forward Via Gary Rosenthal of Rosenthal Capital Management Maintaining the integrity of the Petrodollar system has no doubt been the catalyst behind most of the global political events since its inception in 1973. Without a petrodollar the Fed will be forced to monetize not only new Treasury debt but trillions of maturing debt and all debt sold by foreign [...]

Precious Metals Outlook: India Agrees to Pay Gold Instead of US$ For Iranian Oil

admin — Tue, 24 Jan 2012 15:39:32 +0000

Via Gary Rosenthal of Rosenthal Capital Management, If China follows India they would total about 1 million barrels/day of Iranian oil. At $100 oil this would equate to about $36 billon/yr (360 days x 1mm barrels/day x $100/barrel). $36 billion divided by $1700/oz equals approximately 21.2 million troy ounces of gold. Converting 21.2mm troy ounces to [...]

Microsoft (MSFT) A No Brainer Trade for 2012

admin — Fri, 20 Jan 2012 17:05:03 +0000

MSFT Microsoft: Color on qtr (28.12 ) Courtesy of Briefing.com FBR Capital Markets notes, last night MSFT reported decent F2Q12 results, with revenue generally in line with expectations and EPS better than consensus. Expectations for the Windows and Windows Live division (WWLD) were tempered given the disruption caused by the floods in Thailand, but MSFT failed [...]